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How To Watch Wisconsin

John Ellis, one of the country’s shrewdest political analysts, offers a way to score the Wisconsin recall election. Using concepts familiar to Via Meadia readers, Ellis argues that the Wisconsin election is a referendum on the Blue Social Model. Because of this, the election in Wisconsin offers an early clue as to how voters feel about their choices in November, when Governor Romney and President Obama will be running, respectively, against and for Big Blue.

Ellis argues that a strong showing for Walker in Wisconsin not only means that Wisconsin is in play for November, but suggests that President Obama may face unexpected weakness in neighboring Minnesota and Iowa.

Short summary: if Walker loses, Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win in November. If Walker wins by 1-5 points, the November election will be close. If Walker wins by more than 6 points, Ellis says Romney becomes the clear favorite.

Read the whole thing. This far away from November nobody can call the election, but Ellis is right that attitudes toward the Blue Social Model will play a significant role in the contest.

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  • Anthony

    WRM, outside of a few commentators, Blue Model policy description as framework rarely brought to voting public attention; yet author’s idea of how much he wins by may be interesting metric to guage voter tendencies in some contested states come November.

  • Kenny

    What an original analysis.

  • David Bennett

    Or, this is just another typical left leaning journo moving the goalposts.

  • thibaud

    I read the whole thing, as Mr Mead suggested, and didn’t see any evidence of either original thought or fresh information.

    I did take a glance at some other posts from this internet apparition that Mr Mead describes as “one of this country’s shrewdest political analysts” and came across a barrage of juvenile snark wrapped around warmed-over wisdom, like a charming post that drops an F-bomb while repeating the (pre-deathbed conversion) gutter wisdom of Lee Atwater.

    Apparently, all a blogger needs to do to be lauded by Via Meadia as one the nation’s most brilliant political minds is repeat the Mead canard about the “Blue Social Model.”

  • Jared

    Walker won by ~7 points…it will be interesting to watch this fall but I think Mr. Ellis is right and Romney has to be considered the favorite at this point with the momentum he has gained.

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