John Ellis, one of the country’s shrewdest political analysts, offers a way to score the Wisconsin recall election. Using concepts familiar to Via Meadia readers, Ellis argues that the Wisconsin election is a referendum on the Blue Social Model. Because of this, the election in Wisconsin offers an early clue as to how voters feel about their choices in November, when Governor Romney and President Obama will be running, respectively, against and for Big Blue.Ellis argues that a strong showing for Walker in Wisconsin not only means that Wisconsin is in play for November, but suggests that President Obama may face unexpected weakness in neighboring Minnesota and Iowa.Short summary: if Walker loses, Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win in November. If Walker wins by 1-5 points, the November election will be close. If Walker wins by more than 6 points, Ellis says Romney becomes the clear favorite.Read the whole thing. This far away from November nobody can call the election, but Ellis is right that attitudes toward the Blue Social Model will play a significant role in the contest.