Andrew Sullivan has a reputation in some circles for overreacting to current events, and here at Via Meadia we’ve challenged what seems to us an overwrought fear of creeping “Christianism” that from time to time pops up on his blog.But when it comes to the EU, Sullivan has sang froid in spades, writing that “My view is that at some point, Germany is going to rescue the euro, and provide the funds necessary for it. Merkel will not let the European project die on her watch. Her country’s entire postwar identity is rooted in it.”There is a dark cloud to the silver lining. Sullivan continues gloomily: “And so a project designed to put a line against any new wars, after Germany’s serial aggression, will end up making Europe a German-based, German-run and German-funded country.”This view of the case is generally more common in the UK than in the US, and reflects British concerns about German power that are often less keenly felt here on the side of the pond where memories of World War Two are dim and far-off, mist-enshrouded Germany more looks like an Oregon sized country that makes some good cars than an unstoppable juggernaut crushing Europe beneath its wheels.Sullivan could well be right, but at the stately Mead manor in glamorous Queens we tend to see more obstacles in Germany’s path. I’m agreed that Chancellor Merkel has no intention of being the chancellor who threw Europe away, but both at home and abroad she faces some challenging constraints. I think there is a non-trivial chance that events could move too far, too fast for her to step in. Some kind of banking crisis in France, for example, could create an immense and overwhelming mess. Anything that affects France’s credit rating could lead to a position in which no simple and effective solution could be put in place quickly enough to stop an unpredictable and uncontrollable set of financial consequences. Chancellor Merkel does not have a free hand at home; the German Constitutional Court and fractious coalition partners are watching her closely.And even if the crisis presents itself in a form which Germany can master, Europe is a surprisingly hard continent to control. None of the other European countries want a German led Europe (Austria just possibly excepted), and the French and the Italians are extremely clever.Nevertheless, in broad terms, Sullivan has identified the two most likely outcomes of the European mess. Germany at some point will take decisive action, and its influence in post-crisis Europe will grow.I once heard Henry Kissinger say that from the standpoint of history, “The unification of Germany is more important than the rise of the European Union. The fall of the Soviet Union is more important than the unification of Germany. And the rise of India and China is more important than the fall of the Soviet Union.”I thought he was right then, and think he is right now. Andrew Sullivan seems to agree.