Catastrophic hurricanes, nuclear terrorism, the prospect of a global flu pandemic—recent events suggest that future challenges may be quite different from those we are used to thinking about. How do we—how should we—think about novel risks? How should we think about sudden good fortune, as well?
Prominent international specialists, policy analysts, and global thinkers will explore plausible low-probability high-impact scenarios in their areas of regional and functional expertise. The seminar will focus on how to think systematically about such contingencies.
In addition to plenary sessions, there will be breakout meetings in which participants will interact with members of The American Interest’s Editorial Board and Global Advisory Council, including AI founders Francis Fukuyama, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Eliot Cohen and Josef Joffe.
NOTIONAL PROGRAM
| Friday, May 5 | |
| 3:00pm | Conference Registration |
| 4:00-5:30pm | Taping of “Town Hall” radio program, “America in the Eyes of the World,” produced by America Abroad Media and 88.1 WAMU FM in DC. International Panel, including: Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe and Anne Applebaum |
| 5:30-6:30pm | Cocktails |
| 6:30-9:30pm | Dinner followed by “Pollyannas & Cassandras: A Debate between Gregg Easterbrook and James Kurth,” moderated by Francis Fukuyama |
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| 8:45-9:40am | Judge Richard A. Posner, “Thinking about Catastrophes” |
| 10:00-11:30am | Intelligence Briefing: “When the World Was Surprised: Three Cases” Geopolitical: End of the Cold War Economic: 1997-98 Asian Economic Crisis Technological: Advent of the Microprocessor |
| 11:30-12:30pm | “Global Discontinuities,” moderated by Josef Joffe, with Owen Harries, Ana Palacio and Itamar Rabinovich |
| 12:30-1:45pm | Luncheon, Keynote Address by Zbigniew Brzezinski |
| 2:00-3:30pm | Composite Scenarios: Breakout sessions with Niall Ferguson, Walter Russell Mead and Douglass North |
| 3:30pm | Break |
| 4:00-5:00pm | “Scenarios for America,” moderated by Eliot Cohen, with Anne Applebaum, Peter Berger, Bernard-Henri Lévy and Glenn C. Loury |
| 5:00pm | Cocktails |
EVENT ATTENDANCE: $2750
$2250 FOR SUBSCRIBERS, SUBSCRIBE NOW!
to arrange reservations with the mandarin oriental, please call: 202.554.8588