It’s been a couple of weeks since we looked at the electoral situation, and since the middle of April, Governor Romney has continued to gain, slowly, on President Obama in the national polls as measured by the RCP “poll of polls.” The slight national swing to Romney was not enough to flip any more states into his column, but a further gain of just over two percent would be enough to swing Virginia and Colorado to the challenger, giving him an electoral majority.
For what it’s worth, we began looking at the state of the race at the start of April, and the race has gotten steadily closer in all that time. As of Sunday, the challenger has a slight and statistically insignificant lead in both the major tracking polls, and in general the older polls going into the RCP poll of polls show stronger support for President Obama than the more recent ones. Arguably, Romney is getting a (very) slightly bigger boost from the end of the primary campaign than the incumbent got from the formal launch of his re-election effort.
We are now going to do our best to close our eyes and ignore the polls for the next couple of weeks before coming back to take another snapshot. Those wanting to follow every twist and turn of the campaign can find that coverage all over the internet; barring dramatic changes we won’t have a lot to say on this subject until the fall.