The 2012 presidential race tightened significantly during the first two weeks of April, with former Governor Romney now needing only a swing of about two percent in national polls to give him an Electoral College majority. At the end of March, the Republican challenger’s magic number was 3.12; a swing of that magnitude away from President Obama and toward the former Massachusetts governor was needed to put Ann Romney in charge of the next White House redecoration.
Today, that magic number is down to 2.07, and two important states have flipped into Romney’s column. Assuming that the trends in those states follow the national move, if voters in November still feel the same way they did in early April, our model shows Florida and Ohio moving from the Obama column to the Romney camp.
That still leaves with President Obama headed for a narrow 285-253 Electoral College majority and four more years in the White House, but as of this moment in time, the trend favors his challenger.
(Readers who want to know more about the assumptions behind this map can look at this earlier post. These maps are not efforts to predict the unpredictable; they are ways of graphically presenting the information we have about voter sentiment today.)