The American Interest
Analysis by Walter Russell Mead & Staff
Romney Gaining on Obama



The 2012 presidential race tightened significantly during the first two weeks of April, with former Governor Romney now needing only a swing of about two percent in national polls to give him an Electoral College majority. At the end of March, the Republican challenger’s magic number was 3.12; a swing of that magnitude away from President Obama and toward the former Massachusetts governor was needed to put Ann Romney in charge of the next White House redecoration.

Today, that magic number is down to 2.07, and two important states have flipped into Romney’s column. Assuming that the trends in those states follow the national move, if voters in November still feel the same way they did in early April, our model shows Florida and Ohio moving from the Obama column to the Romney camp.

That still leaves with President Obama headed for a narrow 285-253 Electoral College majority and four more years in the White House, but as of this moment in time, the trend favors his challenger.

(Readers who want to know more about the assumptions behind this map can look at this earlier post. These maps are not efforts to predict the unpredictable; they are ways of graphically presenting the information we have about voter sentiment today.)

 

Published on April 15, 2012 4:29 pm
  • David Bennett

    What’s up with the Ann Romney crack about redecorating? Dude, be a little careful with the levity.

  • Jim.

    For interest’s sake, have one map that uses the Rasmussen numbers instead of the average.

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    It should be kept in mind that 80% of the undecideds in a Presidential re-election, go to the challenger, even in a landslide like Reagan’s in 1984. This means that if Obama goes into the election with 48% support and 5% undecided he will lose. In my opinion Obama has replaced Jimmy Carter as the worst President in my lifetime, and the election is going to reflect that fact.
    “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” Reagan

  • Kenny

    Stop posting this stuff, Mr. Mead.

    It is far, far too early for it to be meaningful.

    If you need to fill up space, go back to the decay of the blue model or the Turks or Egyptians or the natives in Timbucku

  • http://www.reticulator.com The Reticulator

    It will be a tragedy, whichever way it turns out.

  • Jim.

    @Kenny-

    It probably doesn’t take long to crank one of these out, and tracking the horserace can be useful in terms of illuminating what future horseraces might be like. Besides, for some of us it’s fun.

    I’m still waiting for WRM to step up and endorse Romney. Lead the charge of the centrists! “I’d vote Republican if they ran a moderate”, you hear self-proclaimed centrists say. Well, now the Republicans are running a former governor of Massachusetts. Time to show that courting that vast Middle, that consensus-driven Center, is actually relevant compared to firing up the party base. Time to show that American government can work, as long as we just elect someone from the Center. Endorse Romney today!

  • Jaydee77

    I do not believe the polls show the true level of disillusionment with the current WH occupant. My gut felling is that Obama is going to lose this election by at least the same margin as he won in 2008.

  • R.C.

    David Bennett,

    What “crack” about Ann Romney redecorating? Why should a person be “careful” about saying that?

    If Mitt wins in November, did you think his opinions would be driving decor choices? He doesn’t strike me as that kinda guy. So, to whatever extent there is any redecorating, it seems logical Ann Romney would be the person most consulted, unless she’s disinterested and takes a pass as well.

    Perhaps I’m missing something? I just don’t see anything sensitive about what Mead said…and it seemed a straightforward of alluding to Romney winning, not a “crack” of some kind.

  • goodspkr

    Jaydee, I agree with you and even your words “at least.” Obama is toast.

  • Castor

    The mormons in Nevada,Mitt´s neighbors in New Hampshire and Bob McDonell´s work in Virginia should be enough to flip 3 more states.

  • Rich K

    A pig with lipstick should be catching Obama so Romney doing it is NOT news, But thanks for the update Walter.
    BTW, when Is Brazil going to break out of its cocoon and overtake,well,Anybody,at Anything?

  • whatever

    Now, lets see.. A truly honorable, accomplished man, the CEO America needs right now, the embodiment of American achievement and grace..

    Or a deceiving, weakling agitator who would divide and gut the country to permit his re-election, to keep doing nothing but crafting ‘narratives’ and some such bs.

    Top business leader and all round decent guy – or disbarred (as with wife) kid with no accomplishments or history and with friends we normally call enemies..

    Hmm..

  • Glen

    Obama won’t take Virginia. Not gonna happen. That’s another 13 electoral votes, which leaves Obama still slightly ahead, 273-266.

    Add some combination of New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Iowa (6)… or even New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20), and it’s all over.