As odd as it sounds today, in early April Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and his administration were getting ready to reap weeks of positive international media attention. Despite ongoing insurgencies in the north, economists announced that Nigeria had surpassed South Africa as the continent’s largest economy, and global leaders were preparing to convene in the capital as Abuja hosted the prestigious World Economic Forum.
That was before #BringBackOurGirls. The abduction of an estimated 276 schoolgirls by Boko Haram in the village of Chibok led to unprecedented international outcry, including a massive Twitter campaign endorsed by Michelle Obama and many others. As the hopes for a quick rescue operation dimmed, global media refocused their spotlight on the inadequate response by Nigerian politicians and the ineffectiveness of the Nigerian military. Rarely has the world focused so intently on current events inside an African nation.
These two seemingly incongruous storylines in Nigeria—one of a rising continental power and another of lawlessness and state incompetence—highlight the Africa that is emerging at the beginning of the 21st century. As the world begins to take note of fast-growing African economies and an emerging middle class, new terrorist threats have emerged alongside age-old challenges of religious and ethnic conflict, graft, and ineffective institutions.
In recent years, Nigeria has had a lot to celebrate. Its economy has averaged an impressive 7 percent growth over the past decade. As Africa’s leading oil producer with the second largest oil reserves on the continent, other sectors are also beginning to emerge. The mobile telecom, banking, and the film industries have rapidly grown in the past few years, and Nigerian entrepreneurs hope to make their country Africa’s tech hub. Earlier this year, the president of the African Development Bank explained that analysts are “very bullish about the Nigerian economy,” in part due to reforms that are inviting private sector investment in new areas such as power and agriculture.
In April, with 2015 elections on the horizon, economists announced that Nigeria had leapfrogged South Africa as the continent’s largest economy. Due largely to an overdue revision to the method in which Nigerian GDP is measured, the country’s GDP increased by 89 percent to $510 billion. And looking ahead, the outlook remains bright, driven in part by the incredible population growth expected in the coming years. According to UN estimates last year, Nigeria’s current 174 million people will increase to 440 million in the next 35 years, surpassing the population of the United States by 2050.
Despite these trends, the problems the world has witnessed in recent weeks in Nigeria also reflect the country’s current state of affairs. Nigeria’s impressive economic growth is tempered by the fact that 68 percent of Nigerians live on less than $1.25 per day according to the World Bank; the country ranks 153rd out of 187 nations on the UN Human Development Index. Furthermore, ethnic, religious, and social cleavages in Nigeria (southern Christians control more resources, wealth, and power than northern Muslims) play a large role in political outcomes.
Historically a fragile and highly diverse nation, Nigeria has seen frequent spates of conflict. The violence in the oil rich Niger Delta is decades old, but in recent years, the Islamist militant group Boko Haram and its offshoot Ansaru have terrorized the northern part of the country. An estimated 10,000 Nigerians have been killed in the conflict since 2010. In one attack in February of this year, 49 schoolboys were killed, and just two weeks ago—and well after the schoolgirls were kidnapped—Boko Haram raided Gurumshi village, murdering 42 people.
Equally devastating has been the slow, counterproductive, and often brutal reactions of the government and its security forces. In early May, President Jonathan requested an extension to the year-long state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states. Despite having one of the largest defense budgets in sub-Saharan Africa of more than $5 billion, Nigeria’s poorly trained and corrupt military has been ineffective to say the least. For example, in one incident in March of this year, Nigerian security forces killed more than 600 mostly unarmed civilians. Actions like these not only alienate the population but also embolden Boko Haram and directly aid in its recruiting efforts.
Like Nigeria, most of Africa’s economies are booming. If you travel throughout the continent, one of the first sights you’ll encounter as you exit the airports of major cities is the panoply of cranes and accompanying construction. While much of the world slowed down during the global economic recession, African nations forged ahead. In recent years, seven of the ten fastest growing economies in the world have been in Africa—with Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Tanzania leading the way. East Africa, long a first stop for tourists on the continent for game reserves, is increasingly becoming known for its newly discovered oil and gas plays. And natural resources aren’t the only driver of the boom: International businesses are investing heavily in telecoms, agriculture, retail, and financial services.
In the coming decades, population growth on the continent will coincide with this impressive economic growth. While population figures are leveling off throughout the rest of the world, Africa’s will continue rising. The continent’s current population of 1.1 billion will increase to 2.4 billion by 2050, accounting for more than half of the world’s total population growth in that timeframe, according to the UN.
And yet, despite economic growth and a rising middle class, the majority of Africans remain poor—nearly 50 percent of the population across the continent still lives on less than $1.25 per day according to the World Bank. In late May Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned that while African economic growth is expected to far exceed global averages and reach 5.5 percent this year, “poverty remains stuck at unacceptably high levels.”
This is particularly true in rural areas that can become havens for extremist movements. Mali, a longtime peaceful country and donor darling, suffered a coup in 2012 and continues to struggle with jihadist movements in its vast north. Evidence suggests Boko Haram is connected to insurgents in Mali and also potentially to Islamists in Niger, Chad, and other countries.
And pockets of instability are not unique to West Africa. Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent trip to Africa highlighted the seemingly intractable conflicts in Somalia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In each of these cases, among the primary underlying causes of ongoing unrest are weak governments and poorly functioning militaries that cannot control their own borders and often prey upon their own populations. Security sector reform is among the most important overlooked challenges in Africa’s development.
A short decade ago, Africa could not shake its generations-long reputation for war, disease, and famine. But now, as China and others look on with great interest, a new narrative of economic growth and development is emerging. From 2000 to 2010, extreme poverty decreased by nearly 10 percent. The truth, in Africa as in much of the rest of the world, is that large-scale instability is decreasing, even as terrorism and smaller-scale forms of violence are on the rise.
None of these larger trends will comfort the individual families who still are missing their daughters in Borno state. In order to prevent extremism and realize a more prosperous and secure future in Africa, African leaders and the international community need to renew their commitments to invest in institutions, professionalize security forces, root out corruption, and address the underlying poverty and state powerlessness that enables extremist groups to thrive. Realizing Africa’s promise depends on it.