U.S. presidential elections receive global attention because the new president has the potential to be pivotal in world affairs. In Ireland, the election is discussed in all media along four axes: climate change; the use of Irish airports by the U.S. military in prosecuting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; the influence of the subprime and credit crunch crises on the global (and so the Irish) economy; and international diplomacy, including human rights. On all four fronts, the new president will have a long way to travel to gain the acceptance of the Irish.

As to climate change, the meek position of each candidate seems misguided to most Irish, not least because of the disproportionate influence of lobbyists in Washington (something both Obama and McCain have pledged to reduce).

As to Iraq, the Irish care mainly about the continuous, if quiet, violation of putatively neutral Irish airspace in the prosecution of these wars. The issue of Ireland’s neutrality was cited as a key electoral concern in the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty, so it is reasonable to infer that the Irish electorate holds similarly strong views on the use of its airspace in the furthering of U.S. military interests. Here the Irish favor Obama, who promises to end the matter sooner than McCain.

As to the economy, the Irish reason that in an increasingly globalized world, a mark of one’s irrelevance is ignorance of the effects of globalization: increased economic integration of capital and labor markets, a global finance industry, and the possibility of economic turmoil imported from abroad. Ireland’s is a small, open economy that has reaped the benefits of economic integration with the European Union, the United States and the world at large, so a president who understands and responds to these forces is crucial for the Irish people. Because of its openness, however, Ireland is exposed when the international system falls into turmoil, as it is now in the wake of the subprime crisis. Here it is not clear to the Irish whether Obama or McCain would be the better global economic steward.

Both candidates have other foibles in Irish eyes. Obama takes a hard line on immigration because of the apparent links between illegal immigration and incipient terrorism, as well as the presumed threat to blue collar jobs. A large swath of the currently illegal Irish-American population will not thank him for this stance. The issue of naturalization of Irish-American immigrants is a central issue for this community, which is powerful in many swing states.

On the other hand, Obama takes the lead over McCain on human rights and international diplomacy, because he is in favor of decommissioning the Guantánamo Bay prison and restoring America’s tarnished international reputation through a “diplomatic surge” among hostile nations. As international observers in this fascinating presidential race, the Irish people believe that the more international stability afforded by the presence of the new president, the better things will be for their small, open, peaceful and prosperous nation.

Who would the Irish people vote for if they could vote? On balance, Obama would win, but narrowly.