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Data Dive
Murder Rates Still Rising

Donald Trump’s apocalyptic tone on crime in his braying convention address set off a flurry of media “fact checks“—many of which were far more misleading than anything the candidate himself said. The most dishonest pieces failed to even note that the violent crime rate had increased at all, instead suggesting that Trump was inventing the narrative out of whole cloth. Others pieces reluctantly noted that the crime rate had risen in 2015 in many urban centers, but suggested that this was normal variation, not a cause for alarm.

But new data suggests that we might be looking at something more sustained and worrisome than many of the “nothing-to-see-here” voices would have us believe. As the researchers Sean Kennedy and Parker Abt note in RealClearPolicy (click through to see the chart) the 2014 to 2015 increase persisted into the first months of 2016:

Today, the Major Cities Police Chiefs Association released data for the first half of 2016. It confirms this trend: homicide rates are rising. If this increase in homicide rates holds, this year will see the largest jump in murders since 1960 with the exception of last year — which saw the largest increase in decades.

To be absolutely clear: America’s murder rate is still low by post-1960s standards. Americans are less likely to be murdered than they were even eight years ago. And Trump’s bluster does not amount to a plan to help reduce crime rates. But there is no escaping the fact that we are in the midst of an alarming uptick in violent crime in our biggest cities. The fact that Trump would seize on this fact does not mean that it isn’t true. And merely denying reality is not a sustainable response.

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  • rheddles

    Americans are less likely to be murdered than they were even eight years ago.

    As others have noted in WSJ thank the medical community for this. That makes the current rise even more disturbing.

  • Fat_Man

    There is no rise in the murder rate.
    There is no Islamic terrorism.
    There is no unemployment.
    There are no illegal immigrants.
    There are no crimes committed by illegal immigrants.

    OTOH:
    There is catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, and we are all going to burn to death.

    • f1b0nacc1

      2 + 2 = 5, the State says so

      • JR

        2+2 is whatever State says it is. It could be 3, it could be 5. All depends….

        • f1b0nacc1

          Precisely so….and we all love Big Brother

    • JR

      Although the time of imminent death keeps on getting pushed back. Remember glacier-free Himalayas by 2010 prediction? Yeah….

      • f1b0nacc1

        But we have always been at war with Eastasia

  • Kevin

    “braying convention address” – have to make sure you say something insulting about Trump before conceding he was right – this is what it takes to still get invited to all the right parties in NY and DC? And the elite wonder why America’s trust in it has collapsed?

    • JR

      I was thinking the exact same thing. TAI can’t bring themselves to admit that Trump’s speech was viewed favorable by the majority of those who watched it.

  • LarryD

    The Furgeson Effect. The rise is consequently almost all in those cities where the local politicians jumped on the BLM bandwagon, cities where they didn’t are only getting a slight halo effect, at most. Which means the gross statistics understate how bad it is, where it’s getting bad.

  • Beauceron

    The only reason the media is lying about the crime rate– and it’s NOT just murder that puts people on edge, but assaults, strong arm robbery and rape as well,and all f those are up.

    But Obama is president, and the media is on the Left and Obama is their guy. So they will lie to us for his benefit.

  • Proud Skeptic

    This is a complicated matter to be sure. However…one of the major components here is without a doubt the backing off of “broken windows” style policing. This method may have been annoying and intrusive but the reality is that it has saved hundreds of black lives. BLM needs to take a hard look at this and at themselves. In real terms, BLM has probably been responsible for more deaths of black people than has decades of “overly aggressive” policing.

  • koblog

    “Braying.” Nice.

    Do you oh so incidentally (of course, you have to keep up appearances with your esteemed fellow elites) comment on Hillary’s style the same way?

    Didn’t think so.

  • Josephbleau

    “braying convention” “to utter with a loud, harsh sound, like a donkey.” Even when you right a wrong against Trump you insult him.

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