For months, the world has been bombarded with headlines about “Grexit”—the possibility that Greece could leave the Eurozone, or even the EU altogether. Experts detailed the ramifications for European and global economies, the “European Project,” and Russia’s widening sphere of influence. Yet far little discussion has focused on how the Greece’s ongoing economic woes have impacted Europe’s ever-worsening migration crisis.
Europe is currently on the receiving end of the largest mass migration in recent history. Due to its geography, Greece has become a popular, and meagerly equipped, gatekeeper to Europe. Its proximity to the Middle East and North Africa, as well as its long and insufficiently guarded coastline, make it an ideal entry point for migrants and refugees in search of a better life in the EU. Dublin II regulations require migrants to claim asylum in the first point of entry into the EU. So while Greece is primarily a transit point, it also shoulders a majority of the burden in processing, monitoring, and housing new arrivals.
Greece’s slide into economic depression coincided with an uptick in irregular migration through the Eastern Mediterranean. According to the Greek Coast Guard migrant arrivals to Greece by sea increased from 9,340 in 2013, and 34,442 in 2014, to 77,100 so far in 2015—a 725 percent increase in two years. More worryingly, it is possible this figure will more than double by year’s end, largely driven by displacements caused by the Syrian conflict. According to a July 9 press release by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), four million Syrians have already been displaced to Turkey, and an additional 7.6 million remain internally displaced within Syria.
Ongoing bailout negotiations have been all consuming for the fledgling Greek government, and have seemingly diverted attention from migration during this critical time. This has strained an already dysfunctional border control and migrant reception system in Greece. Without urgent action to reform this system, the consequences could be felt across Europe.
Consider first the impact of bailout negotiations on political will to prioritize the issue of migration. The Greek government has chosen to focus on the economy and its negotiations with lenders above all else, and there is indication that migration has been shunted to the backburner as a result.
According to one report, the Syriza government has already ordered the Greek police to cease detaining undocumented migrants, which my contacts in the police force have already confirmed. Under the previous government, one regularly saw officers arresting migrants without papers across Athens, but today this is a rare sight. Police statistics reveal that arrests of migrant smugglers for the first four months of the year have decreased by more than 25 percent compared to 2014.
Compounding the absence of political will are Greece’s struggles with corruption among police assigned to border protection and migration services. Greek newspaper To Vima recently reported on an investigation exposing Greek police collaboration with migrant smugglers. Several migrants who have made the journey through Greece into Europe told me it is easy to leave Greece without being stopped by the police at the border who “look the other way.”
Absence of political will seems to have additionally impacted the government’s ability to allocate and manage funding for asylum and migration programs. While the European Commission pitches in, the Greek government’s management of such funding is proving insufficient. Greece’s coast and border guards experience fuel shortages and are unable to maintain vital equipment. Migrant detention centers have developed a reputation for their prison-like conditions and alleged human rights abuses.
The International Organization for Migration estimates that 1,000 migrants are arriving on Greek islands off the Turkish coast each day. This is on islands with populations only in the tens of thousands. Last Friday, the UNHCR’s William Spindler told a briefing, “the volatile economic situation, combined with the increasing numbers of new arrivals, is putting severe strain on small island communities.”
These islands are now on the brink of a humanitarian crisis. Refugees arriving are confronted with inhumane living conditions as they face extended waits to be processed—waits that will only get longer as more migrants arrive and resources dwindle.
A darker consequence of such backlogs of migrants is a possible resurgence of anti-migrant sentiment. Recent speculation of a Grexit has spurred many tourists to cancel reservations for island holidays in the middle of the most lucrative busy season. Concurrently, there are fears that migrant arrivals may also deter tourism. This short-term damage to the industry could revive the vehement anti-migrant sentiment and violence seen in Greece in 2012, when the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party was elected to parliament.
If European nations are not moved by humanitarian concerns to take action on migration, there is also a security angle to consider. In March, Defense Minister Panos Kammenos threatened that without additional bailout funds, Greece would send a wave of migrants and jihadists into Europe. While it is easy to dismiss his threat as an alarmist bargaining chip, it does not negate the underlying warning in his statement.
Recently, the Islamic State (IS) claimed it is sending jihadists to Europe among migrants leaving Turkey for Greece. In 2014, the Greek Special Intelligence Service (EYP) identified six IS recruits traveling through Greece on their way to and from conflicts in Syria and Iraq, and the EYP suspects there are likely more transiting through undetected.
With IS actively recruiting fighters from neighboring Balkan states, there is also concern that Greece is being used as a transit point for Albanian, Kosovar, and Bosnian recruits. There are at least 300 ethnic Albanian fighters known to have joined IS and the al-Qaeda-aligned Jabhat al-Nusra. On April 24, Greek police arrested an Albanian illegally entering Greece who was apparently on his way to join IS in Syria.
Over the weekend, Greece appears to have had a breakthrough in negotiations, with both sides agreeing to a new bailout package. However, many in Greece view this package as containing concessions Syriza promised to avoid. Now the government is faced with a new set of challenges selling the bailout to the Greek people and even within its own ranks.
As the Greek government forges ahead with the new package and struggles to maintain power, it is unlikely to prioritize securing Europe’s borders. With Greece preoccupied, there should be more discussion about what can be done, and by whom, to mitigate the humanitarian and security implications associated with Europe’s migration crisis.