As Moscow readies itself to consolidate its control of eastern Ukraine, and possibly punch deeper towards Mariupol to establish a corridor to Crimea, Europe for the most part continues to play the denial game. Last week, in a poignant comment after a panel discussion in Warsaw, an Ambassador of a major European state expressed marked relief that, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States was again focused on Europe; the subtext of these remarks was that, since America is paying attention to Ukraine, Europe can go back to driving on smooth roads, eating croissants, and sipping lattes. The Ambassador was by no means alone in expressing this sentiment. More and more Europeans seem eager to talk themselves right back into the comforting belief that the Americans will shoulder the burden no matter what.
My answer to the Ambassador was that, if this is the state of play in Europe (and I am afraid it is in a number of capitals), then the Europeans are dreaming. Amidst the age of austerity in which Washington finds itself these days, Europeans who shoulder the burden of collective defense will reap the political benefits with the U.S.; those who do not, will not. As the new Congress takes office next year, we will see not just a more forward-leaning Washington, but a strategic shakeup in Europe as well that will redefine within NATO who matters, who matters less, and who not at all.
This draws into sharp relief the U.S. decision to sell 40 AGM-158A JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) to Poland, along with the upgrades to the F-16 to carry them. This deal, worth $250 million, was inked last week in a ceremony at the Krzesiny Air Base in the presence of the Polish Defense Minister and the U.S. Ambassador. Poland is only the third country to gain permission from the U.S. to buy the system, arguably one of the most modern air-to-surface standoff weapons on the market today. In its standard version the missiles can penetrate air defenses and strike targets at a range of approximately 230 miles, putting the Kaliningrad District and Russian deployments and installations in Belarus within range. Although Warsaw has been negotiating this deal for quite some time, Congress approved it against the backdrop of Russia’s escalation in Ukraine, and the final procedures were completed in seven months.
The JASSM sale is only a small part of the Polish rearmament program. The country plans to spend $41 billion through 2022 to modernize its armed forces at multiple levels. Poland has upgraded it anti-armor capabilities, bought an additional 119 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, and is in the final stages of choosing between two offers for a new air and missile defense system, one from the U.S. and one from Europe. Additional key tenders currently under review are the purchase of 70 new helicopters, worth as much as $3.5 billion, and a naval modernization program in various stages of negotiation.
But aside from the JASSM, none of the systems Poland is planning to deploy have immediate strategic significance for the balance of power in north-central Europe, or for U.S. relations with allies along the northeastern flank of NATO. Once deployed on the F-16 platform the JASSM will give Poland the ability to strike targets outside the typical Russian SAM range. Most importantly, it will offer Warsaw the ability to target Russia’s Iskander missiles if Moscow decides to deploy them against NATO in Kaliningrad or elsewhere.
The range and effectiveness of the JASSM in the security environment in the Nordic/Baltic/Central European region make it a strategic weapon. In combination with the purchase of the NSM cruise missiles to shore up coastal defenses, these weapons will change the balance along the emerging East-West fault line. If there were any doubt on this point, Russia’s recent actions should put them to rest: Following the publication of the JASSM negotiations, the Russians changed their plans to build an SU-27 air base in western Belarus and shifted it further East to Bobruysk, to put it outside the JASSM range.
The sale, of course, has obvious symbolic value; the negotiations for Finland’s and Poland’s purchase of the weapons dragged on for years because of this. But the strategic implications of this deal for the overall U.S. strategy along NATO’s northeastern flank are potentially big. The weapons will enhance the credibility of the NATO deterrent for the defense of the Nordic/Baltic/Central European flank, allowing Washington more latitude on strategy and execution. Likewise, the deployment will change the equation for Russia’s Nordic and Baltic naval deployment—a serious consideration in light of the most recent escalation of Russian deployments and maneuvers in the area. From NATO’s vantage point, the JASSM alters the defense/deterrence dynamic on NATO’s northeastern border, complicating Putin’s calculus of what is or isn’t permissible as he contemplates his next move.
But the most important potential change marked by the JASSM sale is political. The U.S. government’s decision to release the weapons to Poland marks a significant upgrade in the bilateral relationship. Membership in NATO’s inner circle has been jostled a bit, and if the trends continue, there may be a real shakeup coming.