Before the ACA enrollment surge, McKinsey & Co estimated that 11 percent of enrollees in the individual market were previously uninsured. Now McKinsey has a new estimate indicating that the surge brought that number up, but not by much:
Of all respondents who reported selecting a new qualified health plan (QHP) at the time of the April survey (either on or off the exchanges), 26% reported being previously uninsured. 87% who selected a new 2014 QHP indicated that they had already paid their first premium. Reported payment rates were higher among those previously insured and those aged 30 or older.
The McKinsey survey measures both individuals purchasing directly through insurance companies and those purchasing through the Obamacare exchanges. Since this number isn’t targeted directly at the exchanges, we still don’t have a complete understanding of how many of the eight million new exchange enrollees were previously uninsured. But we can still say that overall, the ACA push for people to sign up for insurance has included many who were previously insured. Here Robert Laszewski estimates that restricting the scope to just the exchanges yields a 50/50 split: half were previously uninsured, half weren’t.
Judging by these numbers, we’re looking at somewhere between two million and four million enrollees who didn’t already have insurance. But this is nowhere near the law’s original goal and a far cry from the 14 million uninsured Americans that the CBO originally predicted would receive coverage during the ACA’s first year of open enrollment. Once again, we see that the victory lap over Obamacare was highly premature. We don’t yet know for certain how many previously uninsured gained coverage, but we do know it is less than the Left has been promising all along.