[iframe src=”http://apps.the-american-interest.com/campaign/index-embed-magic-701.php”]With four months to go before the election, and two months before the “real” campaign starts after Labor Day, polling on the presidential election continues work better as a national mood indicator than as a way to predict what will happen next November.That said, it’s clear the presidential race has changed since the last time we looked at the state of the race. From February through earlier in June, Governor Romney steadily gained ground in the polls. President Obama remained in the lead, but little by little the challenger seemed to be chipping away.The last few weeks have seen that change. In the RealClearPolitics “poll of polls” that we use here at Via Meadia to take our periodic soundings of the presidential race, President Obama has surged ahead recently, making up most of the lost ground. Obama’s June surge, translated into the national vote, would be enough to flip Ohio back from the GOP to the Democrat column in November, widening the President’s electoral lead.There are several possible reasons why, despite a continuing spate of discouraging economic news, this might be so. One is that much of Governor Romney’s progress probably came from Republicans coming “home” as it became clear that Governor Romney would be the nominee. Another could be the success that President Obama has had in painting the former business executive as a representative of the less popular aspects of American capitalism. We also note that even as other economic indicators have performed poorly, gas prices have been drifting gently down in recent weeks, and for many Americans that may be the economic indicator to which they pay the closest attention.It may also be worth noting that the average includes one “rogue” poll; a Bloomberg poll that gave the President a 13 point advantage. Without that poll, the President’s recovery would be less dramatic, though it would still be real.One theory can be ruled out: this is not about the reaction to the Supreme Court ruling that upheld Obamacare. The polls in our “poll of polls” date for the most part from before the decision.This remains a very close race, and it is likely that momentum will shift more than once between now and November. But there is no getting around what these numbers tell us: President Obama had a very good June.
Presidential Update: Lead, Obama. Momentum, Obama.
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