[iframe src=”http://apps.the-american-interest.com/campaign/index-embed-magic-604.php”]Roughly two weeks have passed since we last took the temperature of the presidential race, and so it’s time for another look at where the candidates stand. Using our standard method of measuring the national swing since the 2008 vote and applying that swing equally across the board to all 50 states and the District of Columbia, we are able to convert national polling numbers into a very rough estimate of the electoral vote total of each candidate if the election were to be held today.What today’s numbers show is, basically, more of the same. President Obama still has a narrow lead in the Electoral College, but Governor Romney continues to slice away at the President’s advantage. In today’s sounding, no states flip from the Obama column to the Romney camp since our last update, but the “magic number”, the swing in the polls needed to put Governor Romney in the White House, continues to narrow.The race is getting closer.A shift of just 1.67 percent in the popular vote would swing Virginia and Colorado into the Romney camp, giving the challenger a narrow electoral lead. Since we began this series of snapshots late in March, the magic number has dropped from 3.12 percent to 1.67 — almost cutting President Obama’s lead in half.So as of now, the race seems to stand as follows: Lead: Obama. Momentum: Romney.
2012 Election Watch: Lead: Obama. Momentum: Romney.