- the enrichment numbers being floated in Iran, Washington, Israel and Berlin
- the discussion over the nature of the inspection regime that Iran will accept
- the discussion in Israel over whether and when to strike
- American polling numbers on the economy, Iran and the 2012 vote
- relations between the US and Israeli governments
- regional developments from Turkey, Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and the Gulf in the Sunni-Shiite war
- the price of oil.
This focus won’t tell you what is going to happen in the crisis and when, but it will help you grasp whether negotiations seem to be making progress and how the calculations of the various players may change. Right now war before November does not seem likely, but that calculation could change.