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Investors Fleeing China?

According to a recent Bloomberg poll, 61 percent of global investors see big trouble ahead for China. Here’s the story:

Most global investors predict China will face a banking crisis within the next five years, paring their appetite for the nation’s shares and eroding confidence in its leadership, a Bloomberg Global Poll indicated.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said they anticipate a crash in the financial industry by late 2016, and only 10 percent were confident China’s banks will escape trouble, according to the quarterly poll of 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers conducted Dec. 5-6.

A crash in China is something Via Meadia has warned about for a some time, and we are not completely surprised that growing numbers of investors are coming to share that view.

Not everyone sees trouble on the horizon, however. Goldman Sachs and the IMF think China’s GDP growth will stay high in 2012 and 2013: 8.6 and 8.7 percent, respectively.  The long term trend, however, seems to be toward lower growth according to virtually all sources, and the debate is over whether the landing will be rough or smooth, not over whether Chinese growth will be coming back to earth.

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  • Caleb

    “Goldman Sachs and the IMF think China’s GDP growth will stay high…”

    Well, now we KNOW China is doomed.

  • Mrs. Davis

    If that’s what Goldman is saying you can depend that they are betting on the opposite. You should really give those strumpets and blackguards no credibility.

  • Toni

    That’s the problem with one Party running everything. It has to get everything right, and an economy linked to world markets has WAY too many moving parts, most not under the Party’s control, to get everything right.

    Let’s all pray the Party has foresighted leaders who can make the landing smooth.

  • Luke Lea

    8.6 percent growth? Seriously, how can we trust any of the data coming out of China? All we know is that they have a poorly developed internal market system, no rule of law, no freedom of speech or information, and that the banks and most of the major industries (outside of exports) are owned by the government.

    Looking through my old (1960) edition of Samuelson’s economics I notice that esteemed economist was predicting that the Soviet Union would soon overtake the US in the wealth of its economy. I guess he believed their statistics.

  • Toni

    Luke, Paul Samuelson’s prediction says as much about Samuelson as about opaque Communism.

    I had a Samuelson econ text in the 1970s. Now I’d recommend Thomas Sowell’s Basic Economics.

  • zhombre

    Don’t tell Tom Friedman or Andy Stern; the possibility of the Chinese system in trouble
    might provoke an intellectual and existential crisis for them.

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    There are entire skyscrapers and cities in china that are vacant, I have seen the pictures. This is the kind of waste that Governments are known for, and for every bit of visible waste, there is many times that amount of invisible waste, which has been covered up and swept under the rug.
    China doesn’t have a history of peaceful Democratic transfer of power; its history is that of Warlords squabbling over territory. I therefore am going to go with the rough landing scenario, because of cultural inexperience of a smooth change in direction.
    I feel the American plan to deal with the Chinese Communists by uplifting a Chinese middle class with high expectations of wealth and freedom, will now come into play. But don’t pity the corrupt scumbags, they deserve everything they have coming to them.

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