As the Tunisian government fell, Egypt erupted, Jordan’s cabinet was ousted, Algeria and Yemen protested, and Syria braced for a wave of demonstrations—what was happening in Iraq?
Nothing much. Mainly business as usual:
The country resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region for the first time since 2009 in the wake of a breakthrough agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government on the legality of the KRG’s oil deals with foreign companies.
Iraq’s oil exports rose to 2.163 million barrels per day last month, the highest level since 2003, according to a chief Iraqi oil executive. This coincided with a spike in the price of oil to $102, significantly above the $73 per barrel that Iraq’s 2011 budget is based on, the website Iraq Business News reported.
The vice chairman of the National Investment Corporation announced that private investment in Iraq is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2011.
The Archbishop of Irbil told the Catholic News Service that plans for a new Catholic university and hospital in the north are “symbols of hope” in the country.
The Iraqi government asked the Council of Representatives to approve a $400 million settlement for American citizens who said they were abused by Saddam Hussein’s government.
And scattered demonstrations took place in Baghdad to show support for Egyptians protesting against Mubarak.
Oh, violence also dropped. Despite an overall spike in attacks in January, which caused 259 fatalities (still well below the average monthly levels of 2006-2007) the last week of the month and first few days of February witnessed a sharp plunge in attacks. Al-Qaeda and other terrorist diehards were probably glued to their TV screens just like the rest of Iraqis.
What does this mean? First, it means that Iraq, for all its troubles and dysfunctions, is a state on the path to stability. While grand compromises such as the “National Compact” the Bush Administration sought have proved elusive, the accommodations and incremental steps that build a strong foundation for a united national future are daily taking place.
Second, the ability of the Iraqi people to turn their leaders out of office and elect new ones serves to channel anger and dissent just where they belong—into the ballot box. For all the many problems of Iraqi democracy, citizens at last have a right to be heard and heeded. Politics are likely to proceed, loudly, under protest, with a certain amount of healthy rancor, but without resort to street revolutions or military coups.
Do the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, and the protests elsewhere, vindicate the belief of the Bush Administration that Iraq would become a democratic model for the rest of the Arab world? No, at least not yet. Most Arabs decried the costs of the war and looked on Iraq as a model of how not to bring about democracy, and were horrified by the results. Few can be said to have taken inspiration from the fall of Saddam and the installation of a messy new political system.
That is not how some Iraqis see it, though. “The fuse was lit by Iraq, because we became the first Arab country to achieve democracy and get an elected government,” one Baghdad shopkeeper told The Times of India. “It is absolutely true that (George W.) Bush was right when he said that democracy in Iraq would sweep through the Arab world,” Iraqi political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari added. Most Iraqis tuned in to Arab satellite stations to watch the unfolding unrest in Cairo, and most approved.
The government of Iraq still has a long way to go. Basic services such as delivery of electricity are sorely lacking. Security is under daily challenge by insurgents and terrorists. High-level political compromise is hard to find. Corruption, as in many countries in the region, remains endemic. Tales of human rights abuses, such as the secret prisons still being operated under the nose of the U.S. military, are daily occurrences.
But still Iraq inspires, and takes inspiration from Egypt. Clerics in Baghdad and Karbala have warned that the lessons of Cairo and Alexandria must be learned in Iraq. A top spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani announced that regional governments must understand what has happened in Egypt and Tunisia or be ready to face the consequences in their own nations. Sensitive to the implications of the political winds sweeping across the Arab world, Prime Minister Maliki said on February 5 that he would not seek a third term, and would work to pass a constitutional amendment limiting future prime ministers to two terms as well. This was another welcome step forward for Iraq’s democracy.
All in all, this has been a salutary week for the Middle East. It remains to be seen how far, how fast and how deep change will spread. Change is, however, upon us. Fortunately for Iraq, it has a jump start in the politics of coping.